The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected that the U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels production would grow from 14.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2015 to 18.6 million bpd in 2040.
This projected growth is expected to come from crude oil and condensate production, which includes natural gas plant liquids derived from natural gas processing as well as biofuels and volume gain at refineries.
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Given the uncertainty inherent in making projections, EIA also includes several alternative cases, based on different assumptions for world oil prices, macroeconomic growth, resource availability, technology improvement, and other factors.
According to the agency, differences in crude oil from tight formations (tight oil) and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) account for most of the differences in production across these cases.
EIA said in a statement on Monday, that the oil price cases illustrate the effect of higher or lower global crude oil prices on U.S. production and use of petroleum.
It disclosed that by 2030, the Brent crude oil spot price averages $49 per barrel in the low oil price case, $104 per barrel in the reference case, and $207 a barrel in the high oil price case.
“In the high oil price case, increased energy efficiency, conservation, and fuel switching reduce projected consumption. The converse is true in the Low Oil Price case, where demand increases in response to low prices. In the High Oil Price case, the United States becomes a net exporter of petroleum and other liquid fuels by 2022.