The popular ‘Leave or Stay’ referendum has come to an end. The British people have spoken, and the majority of them chose to leave the European Union EU. The outcome of the voting process that took place on Thursday was 51.89% to leave and 48.11% to remain.
A close call right? Anyway, the British people practice democracy and in democracy, the majority carries the day, which obviously is the “Team Leave” also known as Brexit.
With Brexit, it means that in the coming months, British and European leaders will begin negotiating the terms of Britain’s departure.
Britain’s exit will obviously affect the British economy, immigration policy, and lots more. It will take years for the full consequences to become clear.
However, here is our top five list of the most important changes we can expect in the coming months.
- Brexit will cause problems for Britain’s economy:
In the short run, uncertainty about Britain’s future relationship with the EU, its largest trading partner, could push the UK into a recession. Market watchers predict an “explosion of volatility” on Friday morning as the markets process the implications of Britain’s exit.
Many economists expect both the British stock market and the pound to open lower on Friday morning. Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, even hinted that he could suspend stock market trading if Britons voted to exit the EU.
In the long run, the situation could be worse. If Cameron’s government falls, Britain’s prospects of negotiating a favorable deal with the EU could be weakened. The EU may decide to strike a hard bargain to discourage other countries from leaving the EU.
Or the UK’s new leader might not be willing to accept the kind of restrictions that come with a Norway-style deal.
And that could create serious problems for businesses based in the UK.
- The process of leaving the EU will take years
A Brexit vote is not legally binding, and there are a few ways it could theoretically be blocked or overturned. However, as the BBC notes, “it would be seen as political suicide to go against the will of the people as expressed in a referendum.”
Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union establishes the procedures for a member state to withdraw from the EU. It requires the member state to notify the EU of its withdrawal and obliges the EU to then try to negotiate a withdrawal agreement with that state.
Norway is not a member of the EU, but it has agreed to abide by a number of EU rules in exchange for favorable access to the European Common Market.
- The vote could topple the British government:British Prime Minister David Cameron didn’t want to hold a vote on Brexit at all. But in 2014, he faced growing pressure from the populist right over immigration and Britain’s EU membership.
To mollify dissenters in his own party and stop the rise of the far-right UK Independence Party, Cameron promised to hold a referendum on leaving the EU if his Conservative Party won the 2015 election.
The Conservatives surprised pollsters by winning an outright majority in Parliament, and Cameron kept his promise. But he wasn’t personally in favor of exiting the EU, and he campaigned vigorously for a “Remain” vote. At the same time, he allowed other members of his government to campaign on the other side.
This created the spectacle of senior members of the UK government, from the same party, campaigning on opposite sides of one of the biggest issues in British politics in decades.
- Critics say Brexit could trigger a breakup of the UK:
Kirkegaard told me last week that Brexit could also change the United Kingdom in a more fundamental way. It’s called the “United” Kingdom because it’s made up of four “countries” — England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. But if the United Kingdom votes to leave the EU, it may not stay united for very long.
Polls have shown that people in Scotland broadly support remaining in the EU. And the Scots in particular have never been entirely satisfied with English domination, as shown by the 44 percent of Scottish people who voted to make Scotland an independent country in 2014.
They like having the UK be part of the EU in part because it provides a counterweight to English power within the UK.
Kirkegaard predicts that if the UK leaves the EU over the objections of voters in Scotland, it will strengthen the hand of separatists there. That could lead to an independent Scotland, which would most likely petition for admission to the EU in its own right.
But Brexit supporters dispute this analysis. They note that Scottish support for independence has waned in the two years since the Scottish vote — in part because falling oil prices have reduced the value of Scotland’s offshore oil fields. And British economist and economist Andrew Lilico, a Brexit supporter, told me last week that Brexit could actually strengthen Scottish loyalty to the UK.
“Scottishness as a political identity grows as Britishness withers,” he argues. “If Westminster is a middleman between Edinburgh and Brussels, they can cut out the middleman. But if Britain reestablishes itself, the Scots will increasingly see themselves as defined by a British identity again.”
- Brexit means significant uncertainty for migrants:
Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, campaigned for Leave on an anti-immigration platform.
One of the most important and controversial achievements of the EU was the establishment of the principle of free movement among EU countries. A citizen of one EU country has an unfettered right to live and work anywhere in the EU. Both Britons and foreigners have taken advantage of this opportunity.
There currently are about 1.2 million Brits living in other EU countries, while about 3 million non-British EU nationals live in Britain. Thanks to EU rules, they were able to move across the English Channel with a minimum of paperwork. Britain’s exit from the EU could change that profoundly.
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It’s possible, of course, that Britain could negotiate a new treaty with the EU that continues to allow free movement between the UK and the EU. But resentment of EU immigrants — especially from poorer, economically struggling countries like Poland and Lithuania — was a key force driving support for Brexit . So the British government will be under immense pressure to refuse to continue the current arrangement.
At a minimum, that would mean that people moving to or from Britain would need to worry about passports and residency rules. And it could mean that some British immigrants may
lose their right to continue living and working in the UK and be deported.
“The withdrawal process is unprecedented,” a British government spokesperson said a few weeks ago. “There is a great deal of uncertainty about how it would work.”